Formulation of Clean Energy Transition Strategies for Small and Medium Sized Cities

Hainoun, Ali and Falay, Basak and Stortecky, Sebastian and Horak, Daniel and Salvado, Mariana and Domingues Goncalves, Carolina and Pereira, Maria Leonor (2025) Formulation of Clean Energy Transition Strategies for Small and Medium Sized Cities. URBAN INNOVATION: TO BOLDLY GO WHERE NO CITIES HAVE GONE BEFORE. Medium sized cities and towns as a major arena of global urbanisation. Proceedings of REAL CORP 2025, 30th Intl. Conference on Urban Development, Regional Planning and Information Society. pp. 527-538. ISSN 2521-3938

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Abstract

The EU project PLENTY-LIFE has developed the Holistic Integrated Spatio-Temporal Energy Planning (HISTEP) framework to help small and medium-sized cities (SMCTs) plan long-term clean energy transitions (CET). Currently, the framework is being tested in seven pilot cities across Austria, Italy, Portugal, and Romania through a collaborative process with local stakeholders. This paper outlines the key steps in CET strategy development and shares initial findings from applying HISTEP to project future energy demand in Fundão, Portugal. The baseline "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario reflects historical trends and existing policies, with minimal decarbonization efforts and moderate socio-economic and technological changes. In BAU scenario, the projected annual final energy demand by fuel shows a slight increase from 318.8 GWh to 320.0 GWh over the study period (2018-2050), averaging an annual growth rate of 0.01%. During this period, motor fuel remains dominant, where its share decreases from 47% to 43% of total final energy consumption. Electricity's share increases from 30% to 34%, while fossil thermal fuel decreases from 14% to 12%. The final energy by sector shows a dominance of building sectors, its share will rise from 43.8% to 45.9%, the transport sector decreases from 41.8% to 36.5%, and the industry sector increases from 14.5% to 17.6%. The resulting CO₂ emissions within the city boundaries show a slight decline from 48.6 to 43 kt-CO₂. The corresponding per capita indicator indicators reveal an increase in final energy demand from 11.9 to 14.4 MWh/cap and a slight rise in CO₂ emissions from 1.82 to 1.94 t-CO₂/cap. These results illustrate the limited impact of current decarbonization measures concerning energy savings and efficiency improvements, electrification, digitalization, and the transition to clean fuels across all consumption sectors. BAU scenario serves as a benchmark to assess the effectiveness of the forthcoming clean energy transition scenario (CETS), which aims to demonstrate a decarbonization pathway toward a climate-neutral Fundão by 2050. The CET aligns with Fundão's energy and climate goals and is driven by significant enhancements in energy efficiency across all sectors, electrification of end-uses, a shift to clean fuels, and an increase in local RES to decarbonize power and heat supply. The HISTEP framework's application in Fundão underscores the importance of comprehensive, integrated planning in achieving sustainable energy transitions for SMCTs. Modelling various scenarios following a participatory process engaging local stakeholders and citizens, cities can develop tailored strategies that effectively address their unique challenges and opportunities in the journey toward carbon neutrality.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sustainable urban development, spatio-temporal energy planning, city decarbonisation strategy, Co-creation , Clean Energy Transition
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Depositing User:	The CORP Team
Date Deposited:	26 May 2025 13:31
Last Modified:	07 Jul 2025 10:00
URI:	http://repository.corp.at/id/eprint/1252

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