Implementation of a Forecast-Based Predictive Controller in a Residential Building

Kling, Bernhard and Wolf, Magdalena and Pröll, Tobias (2026) Implementation of a Forecast-Based Predictive Controller in a Residential Building. EVERYBODY PLANS ... SOMETIMES. Cherish Heritage, Plan Now, Create a Better Future! Proceedings of REAL CORP 2026, 31st International Conference on Urban Development, Regional Planning and Information Society. pp. 519-524. ISSN 2521-3938

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Abstract

To support the European Union’s decarbonization pathway for buildings – phasing out fossil heating and cooling by 2040 and achieving zero-emission standards by 2050, this work presents a forecast-based model predictive control (MPC) for thermally activated building components (TAB). TAB provides large-area, low-temperature heat transfer and substantial thermal storage, enabling the controller to use environmental inputs such as solar irradiation to maintain comfort. The proposed MPC reduces complexity by embedding a lightweight, physics-based building model directly in the controller source code and avoiding heavy machine learning pipelines. A 48-hour forecast horizon with hourly updates leverages weather data (temperature, wind, cloudiness) and on-sitebuilding measurements to compute additional heating/cooling actions. Optimization is formulated first via least-squares error minimization for temperature tracking, then extended to a cost-based objective that includes dynamic tariffs, local renewables, CO2 price signals, and a season- dependent comfort band to enable short-term load shifting. Demonstrations in residential buildings in Vienna and Lower Austria show feasibility, high thermal comfort, and improved operability for non-expert users. The results indicate that a complexity-reduced MPC can deliver cost-aware, climate-aligned control with practical implementation effort, supporting broader adoption in the residential sector.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Forecast-based controller, model predictive control, load shifting, urban resilience, urban planning
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering T Technology > TH Building construction
Depositing User:	The CORP Team
Date Deposited:	08 Apr 2026 20:57
Last Modified:	08 Apr 2026 20:57
URI:	http://repository.corp.at/id/eprint/1370

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