Integrating Urban Master Plan Scenarios with Climate Projections to Model Future Urban Heat Island Dynamics in Erbil, Iraq

Mahmood, Mohammed Mirza Agha and Hamarash, Hushiar Raheem (2026) Integrating Urban Master Plan Scenarios with Climate Projections to Model Future Urban Heat Island Dynamics in Erbil, Iraq. EVERYBODY PLANS ... SOMETIMES. Cherish Heritage, Plan Now, Create a Better Future! Proceedings of REAL CORP 2026, 31st International Conference on Urban Development, Regional Planning and Information Society. pp. 1263-1274. ISSN 2521-3938

Text (Integrating Urban Master Plan Scenarios with Climate Projections to Model Future Urban Heat Island Dynamics in Erbil, Iraq) CORP2026_99.pdf - Published Version Download (3MB)

Abstract

The current study focuses on the trends of LST in Erbil city in Iraq under urban development and climate change using remote sensing analysis. Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS, and Landsat 9 data were obtained in 2009, 2014, 2019, and 2024 and processed using ArcGIS Pro, Google Earth Engine, and ERDAS Imagine. The land use/land cover (LU/LC) maps were created based on the supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood classifier, with overall accuracy ranging from 91.4% to 94.7%. Results showed that built-up area increased from 19.42% in 2009 to 29.04% in 2024, and barren land decreased from 79.40% to 66.91%. Furthermore, the highest maximum LST increased from 51°C in 2009 to 54.3°C in 2024, whereas UHI intensity was found to be 22.5°C in 2019. According to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, LST is forecasted to become 55.0°C and 56.7°C in 2050, respectively. A mitigation scenario with the implementation of Erbil Green Belt master plan (165.35 km² with 7.2 million olive and pistachio trees) was investigated, leading to an increment in the NDVI to 0.5 and a decrease in the temperature to -2.5°C and -0.4°C in the Green Belt and urban zones, respectively.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	urban development, climate change, built-up area, green belt, Erbil
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Depositing User:	REAL CORP Administrator
Date Deposited:	25 Jun 2026 07:16
Last Modified:	01 Jul 2026 07:28
URI:	http://repository.corp.at/id/eprint/1403

Actions (login required)

View Item