Lengyel, Janka and Friedrich, Jan (2020) Deciphering and Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns and Processes across Scales – Migratory Flows and their Implications under a Healthy City Scenario in the Ruhr Area, Germany. SHAPING URBAN CHANGE – Livable City Regions for the 21st Century. Proceedings of REAL CORP 2020, 25th International Conference on Urban Development, Regional Planning and Information Society. pp. 195-204. ISSN 2521-3938
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Text (Deciphering and Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns and Processes across Scales – Migratory Flows and their Implications under a Healthy City Scenario in the Ruhr Area, Germany)
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Abstract
As it has been stated over and over again, today’s large-scale urban structures are becoming increasingly hard to be grasped and understood through the lens of conventional spatial and temporal scales. Due to their dynamic interactions and complex interdependencies, cities are expanding way beyond traditional - such as municipal, regional or even national – barriers and boundaries. Nevertheless, comprehensive methods and innovative tools for effectively deciphering and designing complex urban systems are still relatively few. Here, we introduce a five-step integrated methodology to understand, reveal and model dynamic spatiotemporal patterns and processes across scales. The main focus of this paper will thereby lie on factor and cluster analysis of prevailing socioeconomic contexts and on their embedding into multiscale urbanmodelling. We contend that a meaningful connection between empirics and modelling is a quintessential and often missing link of endeavours simulating long-term development of urban environments. Therefore, wedemonstrate how - with a machine-learning mechanism called self-organising maps - empirical findings may effectively infiltrate into modelling attempts of complex urban systems. Subsequently, we will use theexample of the residential and employment migration subsystem of the multiscale urban model (Lengyel and Friedrich, 2019), to study the effects of demographic change, local and regional migration flows, as well as their interdependencies with the ongoing economic structural change between 2011 and 2050 in the Ruhr region. Furthermore, we show how we can use micro-scale outcomes to identify the small-scale anchoring of latter regional processes. In our example, we determine neighbourhoods with substantial changes in their local economic and land value profiles: which might be indicators for future hot and cold spots of gentrification processes. The main aim is to inform and instigate meaningful cooperation and synchronised action between urban stakeholders and decision-makers on different scales. The latter task is perhaps even more pressing and challenging for large-scale polycentric regions such as the Ruhr Area in Germany, which will serve as the case study for this paper.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | The New Emscher Mobility project (NEMO) funded by the Mercator Stiftung provided partial support for this research. In the frameworks of the NEMO project, we would like to acknowledge and thank the MatSIM-team (Kaddoura, 2019) for making their accessibility data available for MURMO-modelling purposes under the Healthy and Sustainable City Scenario. J.L. would like to thank the strategic partners (Regionalverband Ruhr and Emschergenossenschaft) of the NEMO project as well as the city authorities of the Ruhr Area for providing invaluable data. J.F. acknowledges funding from the Alexander von Humboldtfoundation within a Feodor-Lynen scholarship. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | multiscale, exploratory spatial data analysis, self-organizing maps, modelling complex urbansystems, residential and employment migration |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software Z Bibliography. Library Science. Information Resources > ZA Information resources > ZA4450 Databases |
| Depositing User: | REAL CORP Administrator |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Feb 2021 17:10 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Feb 2021 17:10 |
| URI: | http://repository.corp.at/id/eprint/714 |
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