Modelling Milieu-specific Housing Demands for Augsburg Oberhausen using BPD-MOSAIC

Sabelfeld, Robert and von Malottki, Christian and Joosten, Han (2020) Modelling Milieu-specific Housing Demands for Augsburg Oberhausen using BPD-MOSAIC. SHAPING URBAN CHANGE – Livable City Regions for the 21st Century. Proceedings of REAL CORP 2020, 25th International Conference on Urban Development, Regional Planning and Information Society. pp. 1157-1162. ISSN 2521-3938

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Planning and developing new residential areas is a knowledge-intensive and challenging undertaking. One particular challenge is to adequately anticipate both the quantitative and qualitative needs and preferences of the future residents early on in the planning process. At such an early stage it is usually not possible to know exactly who the future residents will be and therefore hardly feasible to take individual housing needs and preferences into account. Formulating a comprehensive vision statement that serves as a guideline for the development of the new residential area is therefore of utmost importance. Drafting such a statement requires the developer to address a number of issues: Who could be the future residents? What are their socio-demographic characteristics? What target groups should be addressed? What are their housing needs and preferences? Which conceptual requirements result from this for the planning of the future residential area? Answering such questions requires an in-depth understanding of local and regional housing demand dynamics. While housing demand statistics provide a rough estimate as to how much new construction is needed to meet the existing demand for housing, they tell us very little about who the future residents might be and what qualitative requirements they have. To fill this gap, the area developer Bouwfonds Property Development has developed a model called BPD-MOSAIC. The model, which builds on a geodemographic data set, is a tool to assess the potential housing demand for a specific residential project by identifying target groups together with their typical housing needs and preferences, and forecasting the probability of these groups moving in. The findings should help to develop and market the future residential area according to the needs and preferences of particular target groups, and thereby reduce the risk of maldevelopments. Using Augsburg Oberhausen as an example, the following paper aims to discuss the capabilities and constraints of the model as a data-driven decision-making support tool for planning new residential areas.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: housing demand, residential development, geodemographic model, MOSAIC, milieu
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HM Sociology
H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software
Depositing User: REAL CORP Administrator
Date Deposited: 04 Feb 2021 11:50
Last Modified: 04 Feb 2021 11:50

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